This federal election, the Labor landslide swept strongly across Melbourne’s South East, including Holt, Bruce, Hotham and Isaacs.
As of Monday 5 May, all four Labor incumbent MPs gained massive swings to emphatically increase their margins to an eminently-safe 15 per cent-plus.
The largest shift was for Julian Hill in the once-marginal seat of Bruce, gaining an estimated 10 per cent swing.
Liberal rival Zahid Safi’s primary vote collapsed by 9 per cent – the biggest beneficiary being Hill.
Greens and One Nation also made gains, while Trumpet of Patriots suffered a 5.6 per cent loss compared to predecessor United Australia Party, in 2022.
Similarly in Holt, Hotham and Isaacs, Labor incumbents Cassandra Fernando (7.43 per cent 2PP swing), Clare O’Neil (5.7 per cent 2PP swing) and Mark Dreyfus (5.3 per cent 2PP swing) made massive leaps, with modest gains for Greens and One Nation.
Dreyfus and O’Neil were on track for absolute majorities of 50 per cent primaries – without the need for preferences.
At the time of writing, more than 70 per cent of the votes had been counted in these four seats.
HOLT
(73.2 per cent counted – including ordinary and postal votes)
2PP: Cassandra Fernando (ALP) 64.54 per cent (swing 7.43 %)
+ Cassandra Fernando (ALP): 35,513 (45.75 per cent)
(+ 4.94% swing)
+ Annette Samuel (Lib): 19,370 (24.95 per cent)
(-4.59% swing)
+ Payal Tiwari (Greens): 8868 (11.42 per cent)
(+ 2.87% swing)
+ Trevor Hammond: 6552 (8.4 per cent)
(+ 3.53% swing)
+ Shane Foreman: 3867 (4.98 per cent)
(+4.98% swing)
+ Riley Aickin: 3486 (4.49 per cent)
(+4.49% swing)
Didn’t recontest: Liberal Democratic, Trumpet of Patriots, United Australia Party
BRUCE
(72 per cent counted – including ordinary and postal votes)
2PP: Julian HILL (ALP) 65.28 per cent (swing 9.97 %)
+ Julian HILL (ALP): 40,011 (46.4 per cent)
(+ 6.12 % swing)
Zahid SAFI (Lib): 19,588 (22.7 per cent)
( – 8.97 % swing)
Rhonda GARAD (Greens): 10,387 (12 per cent)
(+ 2.3 % swing)
Bianca COLECCHIA (One Nation): 6853 (7.9 per cent)
(+ 3.3 % swing)
Wendy BIRCHALL (Family First): 3199 (3.7 per cent)
(+ 3.7 % swing)
Andrew LOUTH (Legalise Cannabis): 2598 (3 per cent)
(+ 3 % swing)
Samuel ANDERSON (Trumpet): 2582 (3 per cent)
(* – 5.5 % swing United Australia Party)
Christine SKROBO (Libertarian): 1045 (1.2 per cent)
( * – 3.5 % swing Liberal Democratic Party)
Didn’t recontest: Liberal Democratic, Animal Justice, United Australia Party
HOTHAM
(76.5 per cent counted, including ordinary and postal votes)
2PP: Clare O’NEIL (ALP) 67.3 per cent (swing 5.7 %)
+Clare O’NEIL (ALP): 43,876 (49.8 per cent)
(+6.7 % swing)
Harmick Singh MATHARU (Liberal): 22,585 (25.6 per cent)
( – 2.92 % swing)
Martin BARRY (Greens): 12,652 (14.4 per cent)
( – 0.3 % swing)
Stuart FOGARTY (One Nation): 3913 (4.4 per cent)
(+2.1 % swing)
Mark BROWN (Family First): 2872 (3.3 per cent)
(+ 3.3 % per cent)
Tony VAINORAS (Citizens): 2189 (2.5 per cent)
(+ 2.5 % per cent)
Didn’t recontest: Liberal Democratic, Animal Justice, Derryn Hinch’s Justice, Reason Australia, United Australia Party
ISAACS
(76.2 per cent counted, including ordinary and postal votes)
2PP: Mark DREYFUS (ALP) 64.8 per cent (swing 5.3 %)
+Mark DREYFUS (ALP): 44,524 (50.1 per cent)
(+7.3 % swing)
Fiona OTTEY (Liberal): 25,233 (28.4 per cent)
( – 1.1 % swing)
Matthew KIRWAN (Greens): 12,233 (13.8 per cent)
(+1.7 % swing)
Geoff McMAHON (One Nation): 3878 (4.4 per cent)
(+1.4 % swing)
Audrey HARMSE (Family First): 2970 (3.3 per cent)
(+3.3 % swing)
Didn’t recontest: Liberal Democratic, Animal Justice, United Australia Party
