Cranbourne’s loss to Cheltenham presents an interesting juxtaposition: it demonstrated they can still be a force in September, but the result significantly weakened their grasp on a top-five spot.
The Eagles have the gamestyle, hardness and confidence to match it with Cheltenham and are the only side to defeat the Rosellas since 9 April 2022.
Despite missing midfield gun Jarryd Barker and Casey-listed Andrew Green, who sets the game up from the back half, Cranbourne still looked the better team for three quarters.
Granted, Cheltenham had outs, including former AFL forward Jack Lonie, but Cranbourne devised a plan and set itself to win and very nearly did what no other team has come close to doing in 2024.
The loss puts a premium on the next three weeks for Cranbourne, which will have a big say in the makeup of the top five.
Cheltenham is undefeated, St Paul’s McKinnon’s only loss is to Cheltenham and despite some middling recent results, Springvale Districts and Dingley should both qualifty.
It leaves Port Melbourne, currently fifth with six wins and a paltry percentage of 88, East Brighton, sixth on 22 points with a percentage of 120, and Cranbourne, seventh with 18 points and percentage of 96 competing for the last finals spot.
Cranbourne, Port and East Brighton all still have a game against each other.
Given the Eagles have the fewest points of the trio, they need those wins to stay in touch.
But in their favour is that they face sides currently in the top four just twice more this season.
Port Melbourne and East Brighton both face each member of the top four as well as each other and Cranbourne in a hard last seven weeks.
Those two extra games in hand against the struggling sides gives them a chance of a strong finish, but it’s ultimately the games against Port Melbourne this Saturday and East Brighton on 3 August that will have a big say in their fate.
Having beaten Springvale Districts, challenged Cheltenham and come within two points of Dingley, the top four will certainly be barracking against Cranbourne.
Cranbourne is building nicely and the only team of the three to have a win against a top four side, with Port’s average losing margin 77 points and East Brighton’s 16.
Cranbourne last seven games:
Cranbourne v Port Melbourne (5th)
Dingley (2nd) v Cranbourne
Cranbourne v Mordialloc (10th)
East Brighton (6th) v Cranbourne
Cranbourne v Bentleigh (8th)
Chelsea Heights v Cranbourne (9th)
Cranbourne v Springvale Districts (4th)
