The Casey region recorded stronger home-value growth than Greater Melbourne in 2025, according to figures by Cotality.
Over the 2025 calendar year, Casey had a 6.2 per cent increase in overall dwelling values, outperforming Greater Melbourne’s 4.8 per cent growth. The median value is $821,925.
The 6.2 per cent rise was the strongest calendar year change since 2021, when values surged 17.8 per cent.
But this recent annual rate of growth is only slightly higher than the national average, where home values were up 5.2 per cent last year, according to Cotality’s research director Tim Lawless, as Melbourne remains one of the softest capital city housing markets across the nation.
House prices in Casey rose by 6 per cent in 2025, slightly exceeding the metropolitan average of 5.8 per cent.
Unit values posted the strongest performance, surging 8.3 per cent, well above Greater Melbourne’s comparatively modest 2.5 per cent increase.
Cotality’s research director Tim Lawless said Casey’s stronger growth outcome comes as the more affordable areas of Melbourne record a stronger rate of growth, supported by above-average levels of first home buyer activity as well as serviceability constraints funnelling more demand towards the lower price points.
Across the 34 Melbourne municipalities, Casey recorded the 13th highest annual rate of gain. The top player is Frankston (14.3 per cent), followed by Brimbank (9.3 per cent) and Kingston (9.1 per cent).
Looking broadly, Melbourne’s south east delivered an annual growth rate of 6.6 per cent, while the north west, also considered a key growth area, posted an even stronger increase of 7.1 per cent.
“Demand is once again outweighing supply, placing some upward pressure on prices across the region,” Mr Lawless said.
“Sellers are in a much better position than they have been over the past few years, with less competition from other sellers and rising prices adding some urgency to the market.”
Mr Lawless noted that Casey’s advertised listings had reduced by 19.3 per cent over the past 12 months ending 31 December 2025, to be 15 per cent below the previous five-year average for December.
“Lower stock levels have occurred as home sales rose 11.8 per cent over the year, supporting a reduction in the median time on market, which reduced from 32 days at the end of 2024 to 25 days at the end of 2025,” he said.
At a suburb level, Cranbourne led Casey in overall dwelling value growth in 2025, recording an increase of 8.2 per cent, with a median value of $728,324.
Hampton Park seconded the chart with an annual growth of 7.8 per cent.
Cranbourne North and Cranbourne West also recorded solid annual gains, with an increase of 7.7 per cent and 7.4 per cent. Lyndhurst and Hallam also hit the growth of 7.4 per cent.
In the north of Casey, Narre Warren posted a steady growth of 7.5 per cent over the year.
Berwick had a growth rate of 5 per cent.
In Casey’s growth corridor, suburbs such as Clyde and Clyde North showed moderate increases of 5.5 per cent and 5.3 per cent throughout 2025.
Most suburbs had a growth rate higher than the Casey average, with a few exceptions in the coastal towns and semi-rural areas.
Narre Warren North recorded the highest median dwelling value in Casey at $1.5 million.
Looking into 2026, Mr Lawless said we wouldn’t see the same stimulus from lower interest rates that supported demand in 2025.
“But we do expect demand to be concentrated around the middle to lower price points of the Melbourne market,” he said.
“With this in mind, we could see the Casey region once again outperforming the broader Melbourne average in 2026, but it’s unlikely we will value rise as much as they did last year.”
