The preference flows in the seat of Holt have shown established ideological alignments among parties.
Progressive parties, including Labor, Greens, Legalise Cannabis, preference each other, and conservative parties – Liberal, One Nation, Family First- do the same.
Incumbent Labor MP Cassandra Fernando is directing preferences to Legalise Cannabis, followed by the Greens.
Greens candidate Payal Tiwari and Legalise Cannabis candidate Riley Aickin are preferencing each other, and Labor is their third preference.
Liberal candidate Annette Samuel and Family First candidate Shane Foreman are preferencing each other, and One Nation is their third preference.
One Nation candidate Trevor Hammond puts Liberal at his second preference, followed by Family First.
Nationwide, multiple media channels have reported that the Coalition and One Nation have struck a preference arrangement, a departure from previous elections where the Coalition often placed One Nation lower on their how-to-vote cards.
In this election, the Coalition is preferencing One Nation in most seats, including in Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.
The three conservation players have unanimously placed the Greens last.
In the last 2022 Federal Election, Labor gained about 40.9 per cent of the first preferences and won with 57.1 per cent of the after-preference votes.
Liberals, on the other hand, grabbed 29.6 per cent of the first preferences and 42.9 per cent of the after-preference votes.
According to the two candidate preferred (TCP) calculation by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), over 80 per cent of Greens’ preferences were directed to Labor in 2022. About 53 per cent of One Nation’s preferences went to the Liberals.
Legalise Cannabis and Family First were not present in Holt in the last election.
According to the latest polling, Labor is likely to win Holt, with about 33 to 34 per cent of the first preferences.
