Harkaway, alongside parts of Cranbourne North, Berwick and Beaconsfield, are proposed to be transferred to Bruce, an electorate redistribution report notes.
The report by the Australian Electoral Commission finds that elector enrolment in the current Division of Bruce is projected to be lower than the minimal number required by the Electoral Act in 2028, while the projected enrolment in the neighbouring Division of Holt and La Trobe will be higher than the maximum number.
It acknowledges that Bruce must gain electors from Holt and La Trobe.
Part of Cranbourne North, which is currently located within Holt, will be transferred to Bruce with 7,866 electors. The existing boundary along Berwick-Cranbourne Road and Narre Warren Road will be extended further south to Thompsons Road.
Harkaway, part of Beaconsfield and Berwick, currently sitting in La Trobe, will be redistributed to Bruce with 8,250 electors. The eastern boundary will deviate from Clyde Road, follow Princes Freeway, adjoin the boundary of Casey and Cardinia, and rejoin the existing border with the Division of Casey.
Monash University politics expert Dr Zareh Ghazarian said Holt losing part of Cranbourne North would be a really small change and he would not expect there to be much of a difference in voting patterns.
“I don’t think that’s going to have a massive impact on the margins based on what the MPs hold them by. In other words, I don’t think this changes the political fortunes of the current MP,” he said.
He also believed part of Berwick going into Bruce might impact the margin “slightly” and make the seat a bit more marginal, but certainly “not ultra-marginal”.
“I don’t think it’s going to be so much that it causes any problems for the current MP,” he said.
Bruce MP Julian Hill said the draft boundaries in South East Melbourne showed relatively little change this time, which was welcome.
“Bruce needs to grow slightly, and I’d be delighted to represent more of beautiful Berwick and surrounds, though what ultimately happens is up to the Australian Electoral Commission,” he said.
“Everyone will take time to work through the details and make public submissions to inform the final boundaries.
“One of the great things about Australia’s democratic system is that electorate boundaries are set by the independent Australian Electoral Commission, and I encourage anyone interested to have their say.”
The proposed redistribution report is open for comments until 28 June. Visit aec.gov.au/redistributions/2023/vic/index.html
