Flood warning

Hampton Park resident and Australian severe weather forecaster Dennis Luke. Picture: STEWART CHAMBERS 208538_01

By Violet Li

Hampton Park resident and Australian severe weather forecaster Dennis Luke warns Casey residents of a definite increase in rain and floods in the second half of the year as La Nina has a strong chance of returning.

An update from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said earlier in January there were increasing odds of La Nina in the seasons after a shift to ENSO-neutral around April to June.

Using global weather models from NOAA and the International Research Institute to monitor severe meteorology, Mr Luke noted that most of south-eastern Australia, including New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria, would have a really cold winter with more rain and floods resulting from a moderate to strong La Nina.

“We could be looking at temperatures anywhere from minus 5 to plus 5 anywhere in Victoria,” he said.

“I haven’t seen a cold winter like this for a long time because, over the last 20 years, winter’s been reasonably cool to mild.

“We’re going to get just as much, if not more, rain than what we had in 2022, To me, that’s a given.”

Mr Luke pointed out that many areas in Casey were susceptible to severe rain and flood.

“If you have undulating areas, for example, a road that goes down and then backs up again like Narre Warren-Cranbourne Road under the railway line, as soon as we have 20 millimetres of rain, it floods in the left and middle lanes because the drainage system is not built for heavy rain,” he said.

“They need to replace those drains and make the pipes bigger because you’ve not only got the rain coming down the hill [but] from both ends. That would be one of the worst places flooded in Casey.”

As storms could be selective, it was quite indiscriminate as to places that were going to be flooded in Casey, Mr Luke believed.

“It just depends on where the rain falls and how much the rain falls.

“This is one of the reasons why I’m doing the weather because I want people to be better informed.”

City of Casey manager active communities Angie Peresso said it was great to hear the resident was thinking well ahead of potential future emergencies.

“We strongly encourage them to think about their own plans and preparedness for any emergency, including flood. Lots of supporting information is available on our website,” she said, directing people to casey.vic.gov.au/emergency

To know more about Mr Luke’s severe weather forecast, visit shorturl.at/yBHX5