By Cam Lucadou-Wells
Berwick MP Brad Battin’s comfortable hold in Berwick was one of few “bright spots” for the Coalition in the South East, according to a political expert.
“He’s made that marginal seat a safe one for the Liberals,” Monash University politics senior lecturer Zareh Ghazarian said.
But in the wake of the election, Mr Battin is one of few Liberal members left standing in the region, alongside upper house MP Ann-Marie Hermans. The seats of Bass and Pakenham are however still in play
The Coalition targeted the “strategically important” and “swinging” South East seats such as Cranbourne, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South with little effect.
In contrast, the Liberals won large swings in safe Labor electorates in Melbourne’s West.
“I think one of the challenges that the Liberal Party has had for a few years is the message they’ve put out with policies has been overshadowed by internal disputes,” Dr Ghazarian said.
“There’s also been controversies with candidates and debates spilling into the public arena on whether it should be socially conservative or socially progressive.”
Narre Warren North candidate Timothy Dragan’s controversial comments about Aboriginals, abortion, renewable energy and Mr Battin was an example.
“He failed to get a swing for the Liberal Party – it was essentially about a tenth of what the party needed.”
Cranbourne remains a safe seat held by Labor MP Pauline Richards, despite both major parties losing votes to minor entities like Democratic Labour Party, Freedom Party, Animal Justice Party and Family First.
“What this result reminds us of is of the result in the Federal Election where voters left the major parties and supported the minor parties.
“The biggest loser is the Liberal Party. Their message wasn’t resonating with voters.”
Dr Ghazarian said Labor MP Jordan Crugnale was narrowly ahead in Bass despite a favourable boundary redistribution.
Again, minor parties and independents “chipped away” from the Coalition vote. On preliminary results, there was a slight swing to Labor.
“That really should have been won by the Liberals. Their primary vote fell 15 per cent, which admittedly went to the Nationals.
“You’d think if there’s a protest vote, the Liberals and Nationals would get the bulk of it. But voters did not support the Coalition.”
Labor and the Coalition were neck-and-neck in Pakenham, with a marginal swing to the Coalition. Again, independents and minor parties gained votes for the big parties.
The election campaign has been described by many as “toxic” during what Dr Ghazarian described as a “polarising period” in Victorian politics.
“The result demonstrates that the vast bulk of the community supports Labor and the Andrews Government’s approach.
“It highlights for those opposing the government that there’s got to be a lot of work to be done between now and the next election.”
The Coalition needed to gain 18 seats to form majority government. It only won Nepean, with some other possible gains in the balance.
“It’s a very poor result. They are in a very tough spot.
“It it’s unable to reconnect with the broader Victorian community its vote will fall – and fall further.
“The community is looking at parties and opting for who has the most stable platform and organisation.
“The saying, ‘if you can’t govern yourselves you can’t govern the country’ still rings true.”
Mr Battin was “potentially a future leader” after Liberal leader Matthew Guy announced he would step down from the helm.
“Mr Battin called for a change of leader last year. This could be his opportunity now because really they don’t have many options.”
In 2021, Mr Battin initiated an unsuccessful leadership challenge against then-leader Michael O’Brien. Mr Guy reclaimed the leadership later that year.
Other MPs known to be stepping up to take on the leadership include Warrandyte MP Ryan Smith and Polwarth representative Richard Riordan.
Former shadow attorney-general John Pesutto will also launch a bid if he beats teal independent Melissa Lowe to reclaim his seat of Hawthorn. He currently leads the count by about 500 votes.
Former leader Michael O’Brien and opposition health spokeswoman Georgie Crozier will not put themselves forward, according to The Age.
– With AAP
