Everything needs to go perfectly for Warragul Industrials to play finals football this year and the Dusties have no wriggle-room left when they roll down the highway to take on Garfield on Saturday.
Garfield sits a game clear of the Dusties in eighth-place on the ladder, but the general consensus would still exist that the Dusties are the better footy team.
They’ve had a tough draw, losing to Phillip Island, Inverloch-Kongwak, Tooradin-Dalmore and Nar Nar Goon over the opening five rounds of the season, with a win over Korumburra-Bena their only reward for effort.
But this is where the Dusties must begin their quest for at least 10 wins and a possible finals berth.
The Dusties can’t guarantee a finals spot over the next four rounds of the season; but they certainly eliminate themselves from the possibility.
Lose to Garfield, Kooweerup, Bunyip or Dalyston over the next month of footy; and it’s curtains for their finals hopes.
Win all four and a tough trip to Cora Lynn follows, while the true destiny of their season will probably be told against Kilcunda-Bass and Tooradin-Dalmore in rounds 11 and 12.
The Panthers and Seagulls would appear the most likely positions to take of the current top-six incumbents.
The Dusties were no match for Nar Nar Goon last week, but that almost has to be expected considering the change to its list composition this year.
Names like Stephen Joyce, Malual Aleer, Regan Awty, Lachie Bambridge, Lachy Braybon, Kuiy Jiath and Kyan Willis have hardly played footy together; and that’s a third of the team we’re talking about.
Experienced stars like Shane Brewster, Luke Walker, Kyle Beveridge, Nic Visser and Michael Debenham have their work cut out in making it a smooth transition.
And their defence needs to improve.
Yes the Dusties have played some good competition this year, but they conceded an average of 59 points per game last year…this season it’s a tick over 100!
The Dusties won’t concede triple figures this week, but the Stars have quality players like Zac Soutar, Angus Emery, Jett Pickering, Will Cole and Lachie Spinks that could make this one interesting.
But the Dusties will sneak across the line; but by less than 22 points.
Ladders positions would suggest that the top-three clash between Inverloch-Kongwak and Kilcunda-Bass should be a cracker at Inverloch.
The Sea Eagles appear to have lost nothing from their premiership season last year, while the Panthers are up and about after four wins from five to start the season.
But their legitimacy is questionable, with wins over Korumburra-Bena, Kooweerup and Bunyip fully expected, while a 51-point loss to Phillip Island raises questions rather than answers.
But an away win over Tooradin-Dalmore is the straw that Lee Rowe and his team will clutch as it confronts the biggest challenge in WGFNC football.
Dean McRae and Anthony Daraio were on fire against Bunyip last week, but getting the job done against the likes of Tate Short, Lewis Rankin and Xavier Hughes is a different kettle of fish altogether.
The Panthers will be competitive; but it’s the Sea Eagles by 48 points.
In other games this week, Nar Nar Goon will be too strong and powerful for Dalyston, while Cora Lynn will tune up for its round-seven visit to the Goon with a thumping win over Korumburra-Bena.
Tooradin-Dalmore will be hoping for a much-needed percentage boost against Bunyip, while Phillip Island will have its ups and downs on its way to a 39-point win over Kooweerup.
The Demons have been playing some good footy in patches over the last fortnight, but lack the consistency to match one of the better outfits in the league.
It’s the Doggies by 36 points.
